TALENTORACLE  ·  THE UNDERWRITE
SCENE 01 / 10
SCENE 01 / 10
A TalentOracle Interactive Demo

Your next key hire is already leaving.

Ten scenes. One career. Watch a single resume become a risk score, a departure window, an earnings forecast — and the playbook to change the ending.

CLICK OR PRESS → TO BEGIN  ·  SPACE TO PAUSE
Scene 02 · The Case File

One resume.
No HRIS. No survey.

Jordan Park. Staff Product Manager at Nova Analytics. Nine years, four companies, two promotions. To most tools, a career history. To an underwriter, a sequence of signals.

TENURE HISTORY 4 STINTS CURRENT STINT 2.5 YRS EXIT CADENCE ~2.1 YRS INPUT 1,067 CHARS
JORDAN PARK
San Francisco, CA · jordan.park@email.com

EXPERIENCE

Staff Product Manager · Nova Analytics
January 2024 – Present
Leading product strategy for Nova's core data platform ($18M ARR). Own roadmap across three product lines serving 60+ enterprise accounts. Built PM team from 2 to 6. Reporting directly to CPO.

Senior Product Manager · CloudBase Inc. · Remote
June 2021 – December 2023
Owned the growth suite; lifted activation 34% in 18 months. Promoted from PM to Senior PM after 14 months.

Product Manager · Verita Health · New York, NY
March 2019 – May 2021
Shipped 4 major releases; reduced enterprise churn 18%.

Associate Product Manager · Trellis Software · New York, NY
July 2017 – February 2019 · APM rotational program.

EDUCATION
B.S. Computer Science, Columbia University, 2017
Scene 03 · The Engine

Six specialist agents. One traceable verdict.

Each step is a discrete reasoning agent with a strict output contract. Nothing here is a black box — the chain is preserved on the report.

01ExtractNormalizing sequence · 4 roles · 3 stage transitions · comp bands mappedQUEUED
02AnalyzeMomentum detected · risk cluster · inflection at CloudBase promo · ceiling probeQUEUED
03Forecast3-yr earnings bands fit · retention curve · confidence 0.81QUEUED
04Intervene4 levers ranked by impact × feasibility · cost curves attachedQUEUED
05ExplainBoard-ready narrative · probabilistic language enforcedQUEUED
06AssembleReport compiled · audit trail hashed · model v2.3.1 · pipeline v1.8QUEUED
Scene 04 · The Verdict
0
RISK SCORE

High risk.
And a clock already running.

DEPARTURE WINDOW
6–14 months
CONFIDENCE
0.81
COST IF THEY WALK
~$1.2M

Not a gut check. A reasoned prediction — grounded in cross-company career signals, with every input traceable back to the resume.

Scene 05 · The Three Clocks of Departure

Every departure runs on three clocks.

Jordan's are all past midnight.

The Tenure Clock

Historic exit cadence: 2.1 years. Current stint: 2.5 years.

PAST DUE · +5 MONTHS

The Comp Clock

Base drift vs market for scope: −9%. Last meaningful adjustment: 18 months ago.

LAGGING · WIDENING

The Trajectory Clock

Director-level scope — three product lines, a team built from 2 to 6 — under a Staff title.

TITLE COMPRESSION
Scene 06 · The Driving Signals

Why 72 — signal by signal.

Each signal carries a directional weight and a plain-English reason. No composite mystery score. An itemized bill.

Tenure past exit cadence
SIG-T04 · resume lines 6–7
+HIGH
Title compression vs scope
SIG-C11 · resume lines 8–10
+HIGH
Comp lag vs market
SIG-M02 · comp band model
+MED
Top-quartile market desirability
SIG-D07 · demand index
+MED
CPO reporting line · visible mandate
SIG-A03 · anchor signal
−LOW
Scene 07 · The Earnings Trajectory

What this career is worth — with bands, not bravado.

$379K$332K $284K$236K$189K NOWYEAR 1 YEAR 2YEAR 3
Year 1$230,000$205K – $258K
Year 2$265,000$232K – $305K
Year 3$300,000$255K – $358K
CAGR (base)+14.3%+11.5% – +17.8%

This is the number the counter-offer has to beat — and the number that tells you exactly what a comp adjustment actually buys.

Scene 08 · The Next Move

Know what you're actually competing against.

MOST LIKELY NEXT MOVE · P = 0.46

Director of Product

Growth-stage data / AI platform · Series B–C · SF or remote
TIMELINE
6–12 mo
EST. OFFER
$285K+
DRAW
Title + charter
Group PM · large platform co.
P = 0.27 · COMP-LED · 9–14 MO
Founding PM · seed-stage startup
P = 0.15 · EQUITY-LED · OPPORTUNISTIC
Stays at Nova Analytics
P = 0.12 · UNMANAGED BASELINE — THE PLAYBOOK EXISTS TO MOVE THIS NUMBER
Scene 09 · The Intervention Playbook

Four levers. Ranked. Priced. Ready for the next 1:1.

01
Title correction → Director of Product
SCOPE ALREADY EXCEEDS TITLE · CLOSES THE TRAJECTORY CLOCK
−18 pts
≤ 60 DAYS
$0–15K
02
Comp adjustment to 75th percentile
CLOSES THE −9% MARKET GAP · RESETS THE COMP CLOCK
−12 pts
30 DAYS
~$35K/YR
03
Expanded charter — platform P&L ownership
CONVERTS AMBITION FROM FLIGHT RISK TO ANCHOR
−8 pts
1 QUARTER
$0
04
Retention equity refresh
EXTENDS THE VESTING HORIZON PAST THE DEPARTURE WINDOW
−6 pts
NEXT BOARD CYCLE
EQUITY POOL
FULL PLAYBOOK
72 → ~28
TOTAL ANNUAL COST
~$50K
DEPARTURE AVOIDED
$1.2M
RETURN
~24×
Scene 10 · The Audit Trail

Every claim traces to a signal.
Every signal to the resume.

"High risk, 6–14 month window" SIG-T04 · tenure past exit cadence resume: "January 2024 – Present"
"Title compression" SIG-C11 · scope/title delta resume: "three product lines… built PM team from 2 to 6"
"−18 pts from title correction" INT-01 · lever impact model SIG-C11
MODEL v2.3.1 PIPELINE v1.8 CONFIDENCE 0.81 REPORT TIME 4 MIN 40 SEC COST $10–30

Right now, someone on your team is updating their resume. You can find out when the resignation letter lands — or 90 days earlier.

JORDAN PARK IS AN ILLUSTRATIVE SPECIMEN. PREDICTIONS ARE PROBABILISTIC AND SUPPORT — NOT REPLACE — HUMAN JUDGMENT. NOT A BASIS FOR ADVERSE EMPLOYMENT ACTION.